Prescription predictions get an upgrade	November 2008

TargetRx's LaunchAdvantage uses data from past launches to attempt to predict a new drug's prescriptions more accurately than pre-launch surveys of doctors.

What physicians will actually prescribe may differ considerably from what they say they will prescribe. To address this challenge, TargetRx has developed a product designed to more accurately predict new drug potential and adoption. The product, called LaunchAdvantage, was built by capturing pre-launch attitudes from more than 34,000 physicians across 75 new drug launches representing more than 25 therapeutic categories since 2002, as well as market forces and post-launch promotional activities. TargetRx executives say LaunchAdvantage has mapped all of these against actual post-launch prescribing, which may help pharmaceutical companies make more informed investments in drug launches.

“When forecasting product potential and adoption, most pharmaceutical companies lack the tools to understand the divide that exists between what physicians say they will do pre-launch and what they actually do post-launch – which are often very different and vary significantly by brand,” says Craig Scott, CEO of TargetRx (targetrx.com). “Not only does this divide affect forecasts, but it also affects positioning and message development. To be accurate, pharmaceutical companies need to consider the rising number of factors that influence adoption in healthcare today. LaunchAdvantage – and the rest of our enhanced and expanded product suite – are designed to model the entire collection of forces that affect physician prescribing behavior and drug adoption – including product, payer, promotion, and patient.”

An evaluation of the predicted share of ten diverse launches in the chart below shows that not only are physicians’ stated/preference shares overstated, but the proportion of overstatement varies considerably among products – physician overstatement among these ten products alone ranges from 30% to 99%. This wide range of variance suggests why the pharmaceutical industry has historically faced so many challenges in accurately forecasting new product adoption. The chart also shows the predictive performance of LaunchAdvantage compared with physician’s stated share and actual share, across a variety of therapeutic categories and product types.

According to TargetRx executives, to understand how and why a physician will prescribe a drug, LaunchAdvantage goes beyond just collecting physicians’ intentions to prescribe, and instead obtains a complete picture of all primary influencers on future prescribing. This includes systematically capturing pre-launch attitudes on product preferences, perceptions, and intended adoption patterns, as well as critical market forces such as payer, promotion, and patient. TargetRx executives believe that the end benefits of this predictive model are accurate and reliable forecasts, providing insights that drive optimal positioning, messaging, resource allocation, and promotion decisions.

Using attitudinal and behavioral information captured across more than 75 launches, the base LaunchAdvantage predictive model accounts for 80% of post-launch prescribing, while physicians’ stated share accounts for only 23%. According to TargetRx executives, when including brand inputs of planned promotion and other activities, LaunchAdvantage becomes even more accurate.

LaunchAdvantage and its predictive model can be used by pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies for a range of applications. For new launches, the offering can provide insight to guide brand teams in launching a new drug, including forecasts by scenario, forecasts by physician segment and patient type, and optimal positioning and message platform. In competitive drug launches, TargetRx executives say LaunchAdvantage accurately quantifies the threat posed by a competitive launch and provides insight into the entrants likely positioning and how to best defend share. For licensing and joint promotion opportunities, the model provides a forecast and valuation of a new product overall and by scenario and physician segment, providing information for go/no go decisions and negotiations. And LauchAdvantage can also help measure pipeline potential, by helping teams prioritize products in development by providing forecasts and valuations for pipeline products for a variety of market and clinical scenarios.