U.S. Birthrate Hits Turning Point
Six years after the recession ended, the nation’s birthrate has begun to climb again.
For every 1,000 women of childbearing age last year, there were 62.9 births, up from 62.5 births in 2013, according to data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is the first increase since 2007, when the recession began.
The nation’s total fertility rate—a statistical measure of how many children each woman is likely to have over her lifetime—also rose slightly, to 1.862 children, from 1.858. That remains below the 2.1 children needed to keep the U.S. population stable, not counting immigration.
While the uptick in fertility and birthrates is modest and could reverse, it appears the country’s improving economy is encouraging more couples to have children. The lingering financial toll of the recession prompted many young and less-educated Americans in particular to delay childbearing.
Demographers have forecast a recovery in births as the economy picks up and more young people have families. However, until now there had been no clear sign of an upturn, raising concerns the recession may have led some women to simply forgo children—which happened in the Great Depression when fertility rates fell.
Kenneth Johnson, a University of New Hampshire demographer, has estimated 2.3 million more babies would have been born if America’s prerecession trends had continued. That creates the potential for a “baby bounce” as Americans who had put off having children play catch-up.
ENLARGE
Last year, the number of U.S. births rose 1.4% to 3.99 million from 3.93 million in 2013. The number of births to Asian or Pacific Islander women increased a hefty 6%, compared with 1% for non-Hispanic white, black and Hispanic women.
Higher fertility is positive for the economy because it means more workers in the future to propel growth and pay for the social benefits of the elderly. It also means more people to consume the nation’s goods and services.
U.S. fertility is relatively high compared with that in other developed economies such as those in Europe and Japan, due to higher fertility among immigrants, earlier starts to families and social mores that facilitate women returning to work after having children, researchers say.
Recent research suggests an upturn in births is likely to be led by older and better-educated women.
Birth rates for women in their 30s rose 3% last year. Rates for women ages 25 to 29 were largely unchanged, but that actually masks a slight improvement: In 2013, this rate had declined 1%.
Americans with children may be having more, as well. The rate for second births among women ages 15 to 44 increased 1% last year, and a similar rate for third children rose 2%.
Continuing a long-standing trend, teen births are plunging. The rate for women aged 15 to 19 years old dropped 9% last year to a record low. This rate has fallen more than 60% since its most recent peak in 1991.
Write to Neil Shah at [email protected]
Source: Wall Street Journal Health
