U.S. coronavirus death projection lowered, New York fears undercount

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. officials warned Americans to expect alarming numbers of coronavirus deaths this week, even as an influential university model on Wednesday scaled back its projected U.S. pandemic death toll by 26% to 60,000.

The downward revision in the death toll in the University of Washington model – often cited by U.S. and state policymakers – coincides with comments by some political leaders that caseloads may have reached a plateau in certain areas.

Those assessments in recent days, including an apparent leveling out in hospitalizations in New York state – the U.S. epicenter of the pandemic – are tempered by a persistent climb in the U.S. death toll, which rose by more than 1,900 on Tuesday as some 30,000 new infections were reported.

New York officials warned that a spike in the number of people dying at home suggests that the city may be undercounting how many people have died of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the new coronavirus.

New York Mayor Bill De Blasio told a briefing that coronavirus-related hospitalizations in the most populous U.S. city had stabilized and that the need for ventilators was lower than projected.

“In the last few days we’ve actually seen fewer ventilators needed that were projected,” the mayor said.

Even that revised forecast suggested months of pain ahead for the United States. All told, about 400,000 U.S. infections have been reported, along with roughly 13,000 deaths.

“What’s really important is that people don’t turn these early signs of hope into releasing from the 30 days to stop the spread – it’s really critical,” said Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force.

“If people start going out again and socially interacting, we could see a really acute second wave,” Birx added.

President Donald Trump’s administration has called for 30 days of measures, including staying at least six feet (1.8 meters) away from other people, that have upended American life as most people stay isolated at home, shuttering schools and closing businesses, with millions losing their jobs. Some 94% of the U.S. population has been ordered to stay at home.

Trump, who initially downplayed the coronavirus threat, on Wednesday wrote on Twitter that a reopening of U.S. society will come “sooner rather than later.”

Hospitals have been inundated with cases of COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the virus, resulting in shortages of medical equipment and protective garments.

New York and its suburbs, New Orleans, Detroit, Washington state and some other locales have been hotspots, while new ones were emerging elsewhere in the country.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is one of several that the White House task force has cited. It now projects U.S. deaths at more than 60,000 by Aug. 4, down from the nearly 82,000 fatalities it had forecast on Tuesday.

The White House coronavirus task force has previously projected 100,000 to 240,000 Americans could die.

The institute also moved up its projected peak in the number to U.S. deaths to this Sunday, when it predicted 2,212 people will succumb to the disease. The revision moves forward the projected peak by four days, suggesting the strain on the country’s healthcare system will lessen sooner than previously expected.

 

AT-HOME DEATHS UNDERCOUNTED?

New York’s de Blasio estimated an undercount in the death toll of 100 to 200 people per day who are dying at home but excluded from the city’s rapidly growing coronavirus count. So far the city’s announced death toll has reflected only COVID-19 diagnoses confirmed in a laboratory.

More than 200 people are dying at home in New York City each day during the pandemic, up from 22 to 32 during the same dates a year ago of March 20 to April 5, according to city fire officials.

The city will now try to quantify how many of those died from coronavirus-related causes and add that to the its official death toll, New York’s health department said.

“People are dying outside the hospital, unfortunately. It happens every day,” Oren Barzilay, the president of the Local 2057 labor union representing city paramedics, said. “I think those numbers, those statistics in New York for deaths would significantly go up if they tested everyone that expired.”

The same phenomenon of more deaths at home has been seen in Italy, where the coronavirus outbreak spread earlier.

Authorities in various states have disclosed data showing the pandemic having a disproportionate impact on African Americans, reflecting longstanding racial inequities in health outcomes in the United States.

De Blasio said there were “clear inequalities” in how the coronavirus is affecting his city’s population, though the disparities have been less pronounced than in some other jurisdictions. Data released on Wednesday showed Hispanic residents dying at more than twice the rate as non-Hispanic white people and slightly outpacing the death rate of African Americans in the city.